Rugby World Cup 2011 - Hope versus Expectation
Fans of rugby union will be approaching this year’s seventh Rugby World Cup (RWC) with different attitudes depending on which country they support.
There will be those from the powerhouse nations like New Zealand, Australia and South Africa who blindly expect their team to win the title. And then there will be those from the emerging and weaker countries, where rugby is not a national concern, who will hope their team can cause an upset or two and improve on previous showings.
For the tournament favorites New Zealand, there is an enormous weight of expectation –bordering on desperation – from a nation that treats the sport as a religion, holding its greatest performers up as icons and legends.
With only the one tournament win at the inaugural RWC in 1987 played in New Zealand, the All Blacks have been constantly tagged as chokers by foreign (and local) media in the intervening years. It’s an unfair label given that the RWC occurs every four years – between tournaments, the All Blacks have demonstrably been the best and most consistent team, accumulating Tri-Nations, Bledisloe Cup and Home Union grand slam successes along the way.
Should a tournament that takes place only a few times each decade be an accurate measure of which team can call itself the best on the planet? Players come and go, coaches rise and fall, and even if core individuals remain, age takes its toll on even the greatest stars.
So what will happen this year?
Will the All Blacks stand firm, dispatch their rivals and meet the not so unrealistic expectations of the nation? Will New Zealander Robbie Deans, who realised his dream to coach a national team by shifting camps to arch enemies Australia, lead a youthful and energised Wallaby team to glory? Or will the likes of South Africa and England, both traditionally strong teams and proven at RWC level, have the fortitude, drive and player ammunition to take the title on enemy soil?
Let’s also not discount the French, which have been runners up twice and placed fourth in the last two Cups.
The great thing about a world competition is that it always throws up drama, fairytales and tragedy, whether it be the cruelty of injury (who can forget the sight of Tana Umaga being invalided from the 2003 RWC after colliding with teammate Carlos Spencer in the All Blacks first game against Italy?), the excitement of new stars or just the spectacle of a thrilling and brutal game.
As a proud Kiwi, I am always wary of the Australians (it is part of our DNA), even when their recent track record has poor. Perhaps it’s the fear of having to swallow the bitter pill of defeat; the crushing feeling that was last felt at the hands of the French in the All Blacks quarter-final loss in 2007. That result hit hard. But let’s face it – it would have been even harder to stomach if it had been Australia defeating us, as they did four years prior in the 2003 semi-final. Even today, the sight of a gloating George Gregan yelling “Four more years, boys!” to the All Blacks messes with the equilibrium.
Casting aside any thought of this happening again, I just can’t see the Wallabies being there in the final. Other than Will Genia, Quade Cooper and James O’Connor, this current team lacks any real match winners, and only luck would see them through to the finals.
South Africa have looked weak and disorganised recently, but you can never count them out. England more often than not rises to the occasion, so they too could make headway with their brand of safe and solid rugby.
For mine, the winner will of course be the All Blacks.
They have to be the favourites, given the massive weight of expectation (if this is treated as a spur rather than a burden), and the recent run of tragic events at Pike River and the Christchurch earthquakes, which will surely galvanize the team. And, of course, anything less than victory will be labeled a failure. Who’d be an All Blacks (or an All Black coach) and want to live in New Zealand after that?
No pressure lads...
Amateur analysis: Who is the best team over the 24 years of the Rugby Word Cup?
By undertaking a highly complex mathematical and statistical analysis of the results of the last six World Cups (four points for a win, three points for runner-up, two points for third place and one point for fourth), I can reveal the following Rugby World Cup rankings:
1. New Zealand/Australia
2. England
3. France
4. South Africa
5. Argentina
6. Scotland
Chris Familton is a Sydney-based music journalist and unabashed All Black fan
Comments
On Monday, July Jul 2011 Richey D said...
“Starting to get excited about the Cup! The ABs will sink NZ below sea level if they don't win this time round. The Wallabies looked pretty good against SA on the weekend but no doubt the Africans will be playing the under-strength team card...”
On Monday, July Jul 2011 Dave said...
“As an Aussie supporter, I really don't think the All Blacks will lose the RWC. But if they meet us in the finals, I'd put my house on the Wallabies. The All Blacks will surely choke!”
On Monday, July Jul 2011 Sione said...
“Wishful thinking Aussie. You'll meet a team like England or France or SA before the finals and they will completely shutdown Cooper, Genia, etc. Nah, not shutdown - pulverise. I'm looking forward to that!”
On Monday, July Jul 2011 MediciMan said...
“I have predicted the winner of every World Cup - football and rugby - for the last 30 years (yes, I am that good). My prediction for the 2011 RWC is...England, with South Africa the runner-up. I'm wagering $10,000 on this result. Feelin' lucky?”
On Monday, July Jul 2011 Jono Snell said...
“As an AB supporter, whenever I see Genia play I see the the ghost of Greegan-RWC-Gloats future. Like Scrooge, this scares the shit out of me however barring injury and with home advantage, this should be our year.”
On Tuesday, July Jul 2011 Tomfool said...
“So Mediciman, I might take you up on your outrageous offer. Even if I'm an Englishman, I'd still favour the mighty Roses to whip any team this year, 'specially when the acid is on. However, I'm going to up you and put down $25,000 at the bookies on England hoisting Old Bill. Unlike you, sunshine, I can probably afford it.”
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